Bio­mass for Bio­fuels, Bio­chem­ic­als Will More than Triple to 3.7 Bil­lion Tons in 2030

Driv­en by aggress­ive bio­fuel man­dates, rap­id growth will cause great strain on bio­mass by 2030, accord­ing to Lux Research. Using today’s tech­no­lo­gies, an area the size of Rus­sia would need to be cul­tiv­ated to replace all of pet­ro­leum use for chem­ic­als and fuels – feed­stock innov­a­tion will be needed to keep grow­ing biomass’s mar­ket share. ​“Today, bio­fuels and bio­chem­ic­als need more than a bil­lion met­ric tons of mater­i­al annu­ally to replace a mere 3% of total pet­ro­leum products,” said Kalib Ker­sh, Lux Research Ana­lyst and one of the lead authors of the report titled, ​“Find­ing Feed­stocks for the Bio-Based Fuels and Chem­ic­als of Today and 2030.” ​“By 2030, this num­ber will soar to 3.7 bil­lion met­ric tons, and meet­ing the grow­ing chal­lenge will require feed­stock innov­a­tions such as crop modi­fic­a­tion, new value chain con­fig­ur­a­tions, and agro­nom­ic tech­no­logy improve­ments like irrig­a­tion and bio­sensors,” he added. Lux Research built a data­base of 1,715 estab­lished and planned bio-based chem­ic­al and fuel facil­it­ies that address sup­ply-side issues, and eval­u­ated new tech­no­lo­gies that could make a sig­ni­fic­ant dif­fer­ence. Among its findings:

• Use of waste as a feed­stock is rising. Muni­cip­al sol­id waste (MSW) and waste gases like car­bon diox­ide and flue gas have poten­tial as a feed­stock. Lan­zaT­ech aims to make eth­an­ol and 2,3‑butanediol from flue gas, while Ful­crum BioEn­ergy is fin­an­cing its first MSW gas­i­fic­a­tion facility.
• Nov­el logist­ics meth­ods can lower cost. Altern­at­ive fuel com­pan­ies such as Sweet­water Energy and Black­Gold Bio­fuels are devel­op­ing ​“hub-and-spoke” mod­els to build satel­lite inter­me­di­ate con­ver­sion facil­it­ies that feed into a cent­ral pro­cessing facil­ity, cut­ting trans­port­a­tion costs.
• Crop modi­fic­a­tions to reduce input needs. Dozens of com­pan­ies and uni­ver­sit­ies are devel­op­ing crop traits that cut down on agriculture’s mater­i­al inputs. For example, BASF, Mendel Bio­tech­no­logy and Evo­gene are devel­op­ing crop strains that provide res­ist­ance to drought and pests, or can fix their own nitrogen.

Source: Lux Research, Inc.